Wholesale prices registered an unprecedented decline of 0.1% in February; retail sales fall

Wholesale prices posted an unexpected decline in February, providing some encouraging news on inflation as the Federal Reserve weighs its next move on interest rates.

The producer price index fell 0.1% for the month, compared with Dow Jones’ forecast for a 0.3% increase and a 0.3% gain in January. Labor department informed Wednesday. On a 12-month basis, the index rose 4.6%, down significantly from the previous month’s revised 5.7% level.

Excluding food, energy and trade, the index rose 0.2%, down from a 0.5% gain in January. On an annual basis, that reading was up 4.4% from January. Excluding food and energy, the PPI was flat, versus estimates for a 0.4% gain.

A 0.2% decline in goods prices helped ease the headline, representing a sharp pullback from a 1.2% increase in January. Final demand for food declined 2.2%, while energy declined 0.2%.

Most of the decline in goods was due to a 36.1% drop in chicken egg prices, which had risen over the past year.

In a separate key data point on Wednesday, Department of Commerce reported Retail sales fell 0.4% in February, according to data not adjusted for inflation. The total was in line with expectations and auto sales were down 1.8%.

Food services and drinking establishments, which saw stronger receipts than last year, fell 2.2% for the month, though they were still up 15.3% on an annual basis. Furniture and home furnishing stores were off 2.5%, while miscellaneous retailers saw a decline of 1.8%.

This also Empire State Manufacturing Survey For March, a gauge of activity in the New York area posted a -24.6 reading, down 19 points from a month earlier. The reading represents the percentage difference between companies reporting expansion versus contraction. The Dow Jones was estimated at -7.8.

The big decline came from new orders and shipments as well as a sharp drop in inventory. Renting decreased as an index of prices.

The news comes a day after the Labor Department said Consumer prices rose another 0.4% In February, bringing the annual inflation rate down to 6%.

While this is well above the 2% level the Fed considers ideal, the 12-month CPI rate was the lowest since September 2021.

Despite declining annual inflation rates, and more recently banking industry turmoilFinancial markets still expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates when it meets next week.

Market pricing is pointing to a 0.25 percent increase in the federal funds rate, taking the benchmark lending level to a target range of 4.75%-5%.

However, futures contracts on Wednesday morning indicated a peak, or terminal, rate of about 4.77%, indicating that the March hike would be the last before the Fed pivots away from the tightening regime that began a year ago.