QINGDAO, CHINA – MAY 06: Aerial view of the illuminated Qingdao Qianwan Container Terminal at dusk on May 6, 2023 in Qingdao, Shandong province, China.
VCG | Visual China Group | Getty Images
China’s exports rose 8.5% in April in US dollar terms, a second-straight month of growth, while imports fell 7.9% from a year earlier.
Economists polled by Reuters forecast exports would rise 8% in April, while imports were forecast to remain unchanged. In March, imports declined by 1.4% year-on-year, while exports saw a surprising growth of 14.8%, government data showed.
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China’s trade surplus widened to $90.21 billion in April, up from $88.2 billion in March.
Economists at Goldman Sachs said in a Monday note that soft trade data in April is likely to reflect “residual seasonality” after this year’s Lunar New Year.
Goldman Sachs economists expect to see “the dissipation of this seasonal bias to slow export growth in April,” they wrote in a note previewing China trade data earlier this month.
Recent economic data released from the world’s second largest economy has shown that China’s service sector remains a bright spot Despite the disappointing factory data.
National Bureau of Statistics Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index The reading missed expectations and fell into contraction territory with a reading of 49.2 in April from a reading of 51.9 in April.
“China has passed the most rapid phase of its reopening,” Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a separate Friday note. It reiterated its forecast for China’s economy to see full-year growth of 6% in 2023.
“Recent meetings with clients in the mainland suggest a gradual easing of pessimism on near-term growth, but some concern about deflationary pressures, although in our view this remains a major risk for 2023-24.” No,” he wrote.
forward inflation
China’s inflation data is due to be released on Thursday. According to a Reuters poll, economists expect inflation to slow to 0.3% on an annual basis.
According to the survey, prices are expected to remain flat month-on-month.
The economy’s producer price index is forecast to decline for its seventh-straight month, after the index fell 2.5% in March. Economists polled by Reuters expect to see a decline of 3.2%.
“Central bankers in China have little concern about deflation,” BofA Global Research economists, including Helen Qiao, wrote in a note, based on the PBoC quarterly monetary policy report and minutes of the meeting, adding that officials need to be cautious about further inflation. I am sure to return.”
BofA economists said they expect “inflationary pressures to increase as the output gap narrows in 2H23, particularly at the start of a new credit cycle.”
